Trade Gaming for the 21st Century
Do you conduct comprehensive 360-degree risk assessments using ‘What If’ scenarios and simulations? You may also find our additional games beneficial.
Primacy can facilitate these simulations for both large and small groups, structured as role-playing exercises or strategic games.
For further information, please contact Rebecca Harding at rh@rebeccanomics.com.
Welcome to the Primacy Wargame Scenario Briefing Hub
Explore this collection of essential news items and briefings to prepare for Primacy. Understand the geopolitical and technological contexts that will inform our scenarios and enhance your strategic decision-making. Review these resources to equip yourself for success in the upcoming simulation.
Digital Currency Domination in Trade Finance:
Dollar Dominance Monitor
CBDCs will need to work across borders. Here are the models exploring how to do it
Central Bank Digital Currencies and U.S. Strategic Competition with China
The Fed is falling behind as other central banks leap ahead on digital currencies
CBDCs will further fragment the global economy—and could threaten the dollar
Why the Dominance of America’s Currency Is Harder Than Ever to Overturn
The Challenges of Policy in an Era of Fulcrum Technologies
China starts regular sea ice forecasts for Northeast Passage off Russian coast
Cyber Attacks on Digital Ports
Port congestions underscore supply chain vulnerability
What is known about smart ports around the world? A benchmarking study
Top 10 Smart Ports Around the World
Trade's Choking Hazard
2024 Global Ports Shipping Trade
Azerbaijan-managed vessel en route to China via Northern Sea Route, LSEG and trader data shows
The Geopolitics of New Arctic Shipping Lanes
Tanker linked to Russia's Arctic LNG 2 spotted in ship-to-ship transfer
Solid State Battery Investment Conflict
China’s Bold Leap into Solid State Battery Research: The Charge of the Future
After Chips, China to Pour Millions Into Solid-State Batteries
From oil to lithium: How Saudi Arabia is building a battery supply chain
AI Enters the Critical Mineral Race
China rivalry helps drive US carbon pricing debate
How to Force Capitalism to Stop Climate Change
Cassidy Leads Introduction of Foreign Pollution Fee to Hold China Accountable
China’s international use of renminbi surges to record highs
Climate Impact from Northern Sea Route Traffic
China starts regular sea ice forecasts for Northeast Passage off Russian coast
China Building New Outpost on U.S. Doorstep, Leaked Documents Reveal
China Defends its Involvement in Antigua after Newsweek Article
Further Reading
Russia’s ambition to capitalise on its Arctic territories has led to the development of nuclear icebreakers designed to enhance maritime transportation and enable resource exploration in the region.
Russia achieves a ‘Big Victory’ over the US and its allies in the Arctic; the United States commits to stand “toe to toe, ship to ship” with Moscow, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions in the region.
Russian Research Vessel Intercepts U.S. Icebreaker in the Arctic, highlighting tensions and the strategic importance of the region.
In the context of a divided Arctic, Russia, feeling isolated by other Arctic states due to geopolitical conflicts, has turned to China for partnership.
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/china-russia-arctic-cooperation-context-divided-arctic/https://www.mining-technology.com/features/the-nuclear-icebreakers-enabling-drilling-in-russias-arctic/?cf-view&cf-closed
The use of icebreakers in the Arctic, while facilitating trade and military interests among nations, exacerbates global warming and environmental concerns.
https://steadystate.org/icebreakers-in-the-arctic-an-overlooked-environmental-concern/
Evaluating the integration of the Northern Sea Route into the Belt and Road Initiative, this study assesses the route’s feasibility given the diminishing Arctic sea ice.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198222001191
Russia aims to boost traffic along the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic, a shorter trade route between Asia and Europe, with the potential to reshape global supply chains.
Finnish industries urge the government to consider alternative trade routes to the Baltic Sea, suggesting investment in northern rail and road routes due to potential disruptions from security issues.
NATO has intensified efforts in environmental security in response to climate change, focusing on disaster relief, energy security, and military energy efficiency.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_91048.htm
The CLCS endorsed most of Russia’s Arctic shelf claim, including recognizing the Lomonosov and Alpha-Mendeleev Ridges as natural extensions, but withheld approval for the Gakkel Ridge due to lack of data. These decisions significantly affect international maritime boundaries.
With revitalised bases and advanced missiles, NATO recognizes Russia’s growing military dominance in the Arctic. Recent undersea cable incidents and increased military activities highlight escalating tensions. NATO responds with more investment in Arctic defence and surveillance, yet trails Russia’s capabilities. The region’s strategic value is rising with new sea routes and resources.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ARCTIC-SECURITY/zgvobmblrpd/
At the Vilnius meeting, NATO focused on reinforcing Arctic defence, particularly against Russia and China. Finland’s NATO membership enhances regional capabilities. The meeting highlighted the need for updated strategies and stronger presence, considering Russian tactics in Ukraine and increasing Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation.
Russia’s Arctic dominance and NATO’s response intensify amid Ukraine’s crisis. NATO must navigate the Arctic’s strategic military and energy significance, balancing sanctions with Europe’s reliance on Russian resources. The crisis threatens Arctic cooperation and governance, while Russia-China ties potentially expand China’s Arctic influence, heightening geopolitical tensions.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/25/arctic-ukraine-russia-china-eu-invasion-nato/
Lee Mottola argues for a NATO Arctic Command (ARCCOM) to address security shifts due to the melting Arctic. This command would counter challenges from Russia and China and centralize NATO’s strategy and operations in the region, enhancing its presence and capability in the High North.
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/nato-arctic-command-case-expansion-nato-mission-high-north/
A study predicts the Arctic could be ice-free by the 2030s, a decade earlier than expected, due to human-caused pollution. This rapid warming may lead to significant global climate and sea route changes.
Russia’s unique nuclear icebreakers are key to its Arctic development, opening new shipping routes and facilitating resource exploitation, with notable environmental and geopolitical impacts.
Amidst a divided Arctic, Russia, isolated by other Arctic states, partners with China for Arctic development. This cooperation offers opportunities but risks China’s relations with other Arctic nations.
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/china-russia-arctic-cooperation-context-divided-arctic/
Finland’s new government is urged to develop alternate trade routes beyond the Baltic Sea, focusing on northern rail and road routes with Sweden and Norway, due to security concerns and potential disruptions in the Baltic region.
Russia’s plan to expand the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route could significantly affect global supply chains, despite challenges like harsh weather, environmental concerns, and high operational costs.